Climate Change Flood Risk Analysis: Application of Dynamical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling

Floods are a recurring natural phenomenon during the rainy season in many Brazilian municipalities. Nevertheless, shifts weather patterns have contributed to an increased incidence of these events urban areas, where their impact can be amplified by way surrounding catchment is occupied. Hence, present study sought evaluate susceptibility drainage infrastructure João Monlevade, Brazil, effects climate change undertaking comprehensive assessment Carneirinhos catchment, including its morphometric characteristics. For this purpose, we employed hydrological model driven regional rainfall projections from high-resolution (HadGEM2-ES downscaled 5 km resolution) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario. Several combinations occurrence were simulated, incorporating temporal aspects (different durations and return times), as well spatial (concentrated distributed within catchment). The results showed that area exposed soil experienced increase more than 140% 2016 2019, favoring runoff surface evaporation, which number flood region. In addition, only 1 56 heavy event simulations performed did not exceed capacity macro gallery.